Russia-Ukraine War Newsletter – JULY 28-31, 2022

The situation as of 8:00 a.m. on August 1, 2022

OPERATIONAL SITUATION

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are stepping up attacks in the southern direction, destroying the logistics and command posts of Russian troops. The Russian command is redeploying units from other parts of the front to the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv regions. In Donbas, Russian attacks continue in the area of Bakhmut and near Donetsk. The shelling of civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv is intensifying. New Russian war crime was recorded – the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Olenivka.

Battle for Donbas

Russian troops continue to pressure the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions on the Bakhmut-Siversk line from the east. They managed to improve their tactical position near the town of Soledar and the Vuhlehirsk thermal power plant. They also attempted an offensive near Avdiivka and Marinka near Donetsk, however did not succeed.

Intense shelling along the front line continues. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to hit the depots and locations of the Russian military. The latter respond with indiscriminate strikes on populated areas in the Donetsk region. As a result, 20 civilians were killed and 58 people were wounded on its territory during the period of July 28-31.

Kharkiv direction

Russian troops carried out systematic shelling of Kharkiv and nearby communities. In the city, civilian infrastructure such as residential buildings and educational institutions have been hit. In recent days, at least 2 people have been killed and 10 civilians wounded in the region.

Zaporizhzhia direction

The situation in Zaporizhzhia region remains unchanged. Shelling along the front line continues. Russian troops are deploying additional units in the Zaporizhzhia direction in order to reinforce their positions.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are striking at the rear infrastructure of the Russian army. On the night of July 30, an explosion was recorded near a hotel in the temporarily occupied Enerhodar, where Russian military personnel are stationed.

Southern direction

No significant changes were recorded on the front line in the southern direction. Russian troops are reinforcing their contingent on the right bank of the Dnipro River. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an increase in the Russian grouping in the Kryvyi Rih direction.

The Russian Federation continues intensive artillery and rocket attacks, as well as air strikes. Incessant strikes against Mykolaiv by Russian troops are ongoing. On July 28, a school and residential buildings in the city were damaged; Russian forces hit a humanitarian aid distribution point. On the morning of July 29, at least 5 people were killed and 12 injured in Mykolaiv due to cluster shelling at a bus stop. The shelling was particularly intense on the night of July 31. Among the dead were a well-known Ukrainian businessman, owner of the Nibulon grain trading company, Hero of Ukraine Oleksii Vadaturskyi and his wife.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces retaliate by using MLRS weapons received from the United States. They destroyed several facilities of the Russian army in the Kherson region. A powerful explosion was recorded on the territory of temporarily occupied Skadovsk – it is likely that the ammunition depot of the Russian military was hit. An important logistical hub of Russian troops, the railway station in the village of Brylivka, was destroyed. Ukrainian aviation is also actively used in the southern direction.

Shelling of Ukrainian territory

On the Day of Ukrainian Statehood on July 28, Russian troops launched a massive missile strike on Ukrainian territory in three directions. In Kyiv region, facilities at a military unit in the village of Liutizh (north of Kyiv) were damaged; at least 15 people were wounded in the region. As a result of the shelling of Kropyvnytskyi, 5 people were killed and 26 injured,

The shelling of Dnipropetrovsk region territory continues. Russian troops are concentrating on strikes on Nikopol. On July 31, a missile strike was launched against the Odesa region. The border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv regions are under constant shelling.

Information confrontation

Russian media spread information about remote mining of Donetsk streets with anti-personnel mines, allegedly carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Given the irrationality and lack of military necessity for such a move, this is a provocation designed to distract the attention of the world community from the events in Olenivka.

Russian sources report a UAV attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in temporarily occupied Sevastopol on July 31, which injured 5 people. The Ukrainian command denies involvement in the incident and considers it an enemy provocation undertaken to intimidate the population of the occupied Crimean peninsula.

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

On July 28, Russian troops struck a penal colony in the locality of Olenivka (Donetsk region) where Ukrainian prisoners of war captured in Mariupol were held. According to the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine, about 40 people were killed and up to 130 people were wounded as a result. The Ukrainian Armed Forces refute Russian accusations that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian forces and point that it was a deliberate murder of POWs carried out to conceal the facts of their torture. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi appealed to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross, which acted as guarantors of the safety of Azovstal defenders in Russian captivity. He calls on the world to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also called for recognizing Russia as a terrorist state in connection with this crime.

A video of the torture and murder of a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who was captured appeared in the media space. According to the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, such actions against civilians and prisoners of war are one of the most common types of war crimes committed by the Russian military. Ukraine appeals to international organizations to respond to them because they violate accepted conventions and principles of war. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine commented on the video, describing the actions of the Russian military as a war crime.

According to the Office of the Attorney General, as of the morning of July 31, the armed aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine had affected more than 1,051 children (358 children were killed, 693 were wounded).

The humanitarian situation in the temporarily occupied territories remains critical. In Luhansk region, there is an acute problem with infectious diseases. According to the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Serhii Haidai, this was due to the fact that the Russian military did not collect the bodies of dead military and civilians. As a result, the decomposition products of the bodies got into the water consumed by the population.

The Kherson Regional State Administration reports that as a result of active combat operations, transport infrastructure, housing stock and other facilities in the region’s settlements were significantly damaged. The threat of mines remains acute. Some villages have been without electricity and water supply for five months. Since March, people have not been able to receive pensions and social benefits.

Since March, Russian troops have kidnapped 453 people in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia region. There are still 191 people held hostage. Russians have kidnapped local authorities, businessmen, heads of institutions and enterprises. Five cases of abduction of juveniles have also been recorded.

According to the WHO Surveillance System, from February 24 to July 27, there were 414 attacks on Ukrainian health care facilities, which resulted in the death of 85 people and the wounding of 100. The incidents include attacks on medical facilities, means of transportation, personnel, patients, supplies, and warehouses. These attacks deprive people of urgently needed care, endanger health care providers, and blow up the health care system.

As of July 29, 6,162,309 refugees from Ukraine were registered in Europe. In all, nearly one-third of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes since large-scale hostilities began. The return of a large part of the refugees is impossible in the near future until the reconstruction of destroyed homes and de-occupation of Ukrainian territories.

ECONOMIC SITUATION

National Bank of Ukraine predicts that Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decline by 33.4%. Nominal GDP this year may decline to UAH 4,54 trillion from UAH 5,46 trillion last year. The recession of the economy will be observed in the beginning of 2023, but from the second quarter of the year the analysts expect the beginning of the recovery.

The losses of Ukrainian agriculture during the war amount up to $4-6 billion. The gross value added of agriculture in Ukraine will drop by 30%, which will cause a 3 percentage points drop in GDP. There is a gradual reduction of cash in circulation; in the period from April to June 2022, the figures have decreased by almost 2%, or UAH 11 billion. European energy network ENTSO-E allowed to increase export of Ukrainian electricity by 2.5 times; since July 30, its volume will amount to 250 MW.

As a result of collision of Ukrainian pilot boat with an explosive device in the mouth of the Danube, the passage of ships through the mouth of the Bystre was temporarily blocked. Through this route, Ukraine has been exporting agricultural products through river ports on the Danube since the liberation of Zmiinyi Island in early July 2022.

POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC EVENTS

During a working trip to Odesa region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with G7 and Turkish ambassadors who arrived in Odesa to witness the importance of implementing the agreement to resume exports of Ukrainian agricultural products. During the meeting, the military and economic needs of Ukraine in its war with Russia were discussed and the need to continue reforms was noted.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi maintains constant communication with foreign partners. In particular, he held a meeting with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, who was on a visit to Ukraine. The politicians discussed security, defence and further protection of common interests of the two countries. Zelenskyi also had a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, discussing the progress of military operations, defense cooperation between the two countries, financial support from the European Union and the export of Ukrainian grain by sea.

There is an active Ukrainian-American ministerial dialogue aimed at ensuring that Washington continues to support Ukraine. Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, had a conversation with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. The parties agreed to continue U.S. efforts to strengthen Ukraine militarily and economically. The conversation followed Blinken’s first interaction with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov discussed with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin the current situation on the front and the provision of a new package of military assistance by the United States.

On July 29, the Russian embassy in the United Kingdom published a tweet in which it justified the murder of Azov Regiment fighters in the colony in temporarily occupied Olenivka (Donetsk region). In this connection, Ukraine once again called on the world to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Labour MP Chris Bryant called on the head of the British Foreign Office, Liz Truss, to expel all staff members of the Russian embassy from the country. Ukrainian Foreign Office spokesman Oleh Nikolenko stressed that the Russian diplomats were complicit in war crimes and should be held accountable. For its part, the EU condemned the actions of Russian Armed Forces as “horrific”. In his statement, EU High Representative Josep Borrell assured that those responsible for war crimes and other serious violations, as well as responsible officials and military representatives, will be held accountable. Additionally, the upper house of the U.S. Congress unanimously passed a resolution urging the U.S. State Department to recognize the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Partners are tightening military support for Ukraine aimed at protecting the state from Russian aggression. Norway transferred 14 IVECO LAV III patrol armored vehicles to Ukraine, while Lithuania will provide ten more M113 armored personnel carriers and other ammunition. The German Ministry of Defense has decided to transfer 16 Biber armored bridge-layers, which will ensure the mobility of Ukrainian troops when overcoming water and other obstacles in combat. In addition, the government of Northern Macedonia decided to transfer Soviet-type tanks to Ukraine to fight Russian aggression. The Latvian government confirmed the increase of military support to Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced a new military aid package from Italy.

Ukraine continues to receive humanitarian and financial aid from international partners. Ukraine will get an additional 450 million Canadian dollars from Canada as part of a loan agreement between the two countries to finance priority spending. The funds will be used to ensure priority social and humanitarian payments.

In Lebanon, a ship suspected of transporting agricultural products stolen by the Russian military in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine was arrested.

Russia has approved a new maritime doctrine, which refers to the U.S. course for dominance in the world’s oceans and the growth of NATO activity among the main threats to Russia’s security. According to the document, Russia plans to build new naval bases in different regions of the world, as well as to strengthen its geopolitical position in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and to improve and strengthen the grouping of forces of the Black Sea Fleet.

The information in the digest is collected from official sources — reports of state authorities of Ukraine, Ukrainian and international news agencies. The accuracy of the data is carefully checked by the project team and corrected in case of fake news.