Russia-Ukraine War Newsletter – SEPTEMBER 25 – OCTOBER 1, 2023

Situation as of 8:00 a.m. on October 02, 2023 

  • Russian troops continue active use of kamikaze drones to attack the territory of Ukraine. During September they used 521 UAVs of Shahed 136 type – it is a new monthly record. 
  • The First International Forum of Defense Industries took place in Kyiv, bringing together 252 companies from more than 30 countries. An important event of the Forum was the creation of the Defense Industries Alliance (DIA), which every manufacturer of weapons and military equipment from different countries can join. By the time the Forum closed, 38 companies from 19 countries had joined the DIA.
  • The United States officially presented proposals to the Ukrainian government for priority reforms in the next 18 months, which Ukraine must undertake to continue receiving assistance. These reforms include the functioning of state-owned enterprises, anti-corruption agencies, and the judicial branch of government.
  • According to data from the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is proposing to allocate military spending in the 2024 budget amounting to 10.8 trillion rubles ($110 billion), which will constitute approximately 30% of the total budget expenditure and more than 6% of GDP.

OPERATIONAL SITUATION

Heavy positional battles continue on the front line. The Ukrainian and Russian militaries continue to exchange strikes using kamikaze drones, air bombs and missile weapons.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to attack Russian military infrastructure in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, in particular in the Luhansk region and Crimea. Kamikaze drone attacks were recorded against targets on the territory of Russia, in particular against an airfield and an energy supply facility in the Kursk region, a communications facility in the Belgorod region, an aircraft factory in Smolensk, and a helicopter airfield near Sochi.

Russian troops are striking Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. On the evening of September 25, Mykolaiv was attacked. On the night of September 26, a massive attack by kamikaze drones was carried out. Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 of the 38 UAVs used. Russian troops mainly attacked the Odesa region. As a result, the building of the checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Romanian border, warehouses and trucks were damaged; 2 people were injured. An enterprise in Kryvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk region and an infrastructure facility in the Cherkasy region were also hit. Another massive drone attack was carried out on the night of September 28. The Ukrainian military reported the destruction of 34 of the 44 kamikaze drones involved, as well as 6 reconnaissance UAVs. A hit was recorded on the territory of Kirovohrad region. In addition, a missile attack was launched on Mykolaiv. On the afternoon of September 29, a missile attack was launched on the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. On the morning of September 29, a Russian missile again hit an infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv. On the night of September 30, Russian troops carried out a massive attack using kamikaze drones. As a result, an infrastructure facility in the Vinnytsia region was hit. Ukrainian air defense shot down 30 Russian drones. The next night, the attack was repeated. Ukrainian air defense was able to shoot down 16 out of 30 drones. A granary and an oil depot in Uman (Cherkasy region) were hit. There was also a missile attack on Kharkiv the same night.

During the week, as a result of Russian shelling, civilian casualties in the territories of the frontline regions of Ukraine amounted to at least: in the Donetsk region – 9 people killed and 21 people wounded; in Kherson region – 12 people killed and 35 people wounded; in Kharkiv region 6 people were injured. At least 1 person was killed and 6 people were injured in Zaporizhzhia region. 2 people were injured in Dnipropetrovsk region.

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine has found new evidence that Russian soldiers have been using torture against civilians in the territories of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. This includes the torture of Ukrainians to death and the sexual assault of women aged 19 to 83.

The European Union Council has agreed to extend temporary protection for refugees from Ukraine fleeing from Russia’s aggression from March 4, 2024, to March 4, 2025. The decision aims to provide certainty to over 4 million Ukrainian refugees currently residing in EU countries. The mechanism of temporary protection was activated on March 4, 2022, and automatically extended for one year.

On September 29, during the 67th session of the IAEA General Conference, 69 countries from around the world supported a resolution on nuclear safety in Ukraine. The document calls on the Russian Federation for the immediate withdrawal of all military and unauthorized personnel from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the return of the plant under the full control of Ukrainian competent authorities. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, has been under occupation since the beginning of March 2022.

The United States Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, officially approached the Ukrainian government to discuss the U.S. proposals for reforms in Ukraine that the Ukrainian authorities must implement within 18 months to continue receiving assistance. These reforms include the functioning of supervisory boards of state-owned enterprises, anti-corruption agencies, the High Council of Justice, and the judiciary as a whole.

FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

On September 29th in Kyiv, the First International Forum of Defense Industries (DFNC1) took place, bringing together 252 companies from over 30 countries that produce a full range of weapons, military equipment, and defense systems. Within the framework of the forum, 20 documents were signed with foreign partners, including agreements and memoranda on the production of drones, repair and manufacturing of armored vehicles, and ammunition. Collaboration formats included joint production, technology exchange, and supply of components. During his speech at the forum, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a series of new initiatives to strengthen defense cooperation: the introduction of a special economic regime, the creation of a special Defense Fund, and the establishment of an Alliance of Defense Industries, which already includes 38 companies from 19 countries worldwide.

During DFNC1, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held meetings with representatives of defense companies from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Turkey, Sweden, and the Czech Republic, discussing partnership prospects and joint production of weapons, taking into account Ukraine’s military experience. Additionally, Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who visited Ukraine unannounced. The leaders discussed further work to bring Ukraine and NATO closer together, strengthen Ukraine’s air defense, consolidate efforts among Alliance member states to support Ukraine.

Furthermore, this week, the head of the state met with the Minister of Defense of Slovakia, Martin Sklenar, and with the Minister of the Armed Forces of France, Sebastien Lecornu (Ukraine and France signed agreements on defense cooperation), with the newly appointed State Secretary for Defense of the United Kingdom, Grant Shapps, with the President of the National Council of Austria, Wolfgang Sobotka, with the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, and with the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Odile Renaud-Basso. The main topics of the negotiations included demining of territories, possibilities of initiating joint production of certain types of weapons, strengthening the capabilities of the Ukrainian defense forces and enhancing Ukraine’s air defense, as well as financing for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

International partners continue to provide financial and military assistance to Ukraine. Norway allocated 1 billion Norwegian kroner (92.5 million dollars) to ensure access to protection and essential assistance for Ukrainians during the winter. Switzerland allocated 103 million euros for humanitarian demining in Ukraine in 2024-2027. Ukraine received 100 million US dollars from the World Bank under the guarantee of the United Kingdom, as part of the fifth additional financing of the “Support to State Expenditure for Sustainable State Governance in Ukraine” project (PEACE in Ukraine). Ukraine and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation to ensure the stability of Ukraine’s energy system, including 522 million dollars for its strengthening.

In turn, Lithuania provided Ukraine with sets of radar equipment, and the United Kingdom supplied equipment sets for demining and disposing of explosive items.

On September 29th, the ninth meeting of the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, with foreign diplomatic representatives from 76 countries took place regarding the implementation of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Plan Formula. The event was dedicated to the implementation of the seventh point of the Formula, “Restoration of Justice.”

The government of the United Kingdom announced new sanctions against Russia in connection with organized pseudo-elections in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. The sanctions list includes organizations and Russian high-ranking officials who directly acted to undermine Ukraine and threaten its territorial integrity. The Australian government extended penalties on goods imported from Russia and Belarus for an additional 2 years.

In the United States, a temporary budget was adopted to fund government agencies for 45 days to avoid a shutdown, which does not include funds for assistance to Ukraine. However, President Joe Biden emphasized the impossibility of interrupting American support to Ukraine in a public statement.

The information in the newsletter is collected from official sources—reports of state authorities of Ukraine, Ukrainian and international news agencies. The accuracy of the data is carefully checked by the project team and corrected in case of fake news.