Russia-Ukraine War Newsletter – NOVEMBER 6-12, 2023

Situation as of 8:00 a.m. on November 13, 2023 

  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka area and, despite significant losses, advanced north of the city.
  • After a long break Russian troops resumed attacks against Kyiv – on the morning of November 11, ballistic missiles were used against the capital of Ukraine, but Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted them. 
  • The European Commission recommended initiating accession negotiations with Ukraine to the European Union. The decision is expected to be adopted at the Council of Europe meeting in December. Meanwhile, Hungary expresses readiness to block such a decision.

OPERATIONAL SITUATION

Russian forces continued intensive attacks in the Avdiivka area to encircle and capture the city. Despite significant losses, they manage to gradually move forward in the northern direction, in the area of the Avdiivka Coke Plant. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the other hand, expanded the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region. It is reported that the Ukrainian military managed to transfer some armored vehicles across the Dnipro.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to strike Russian military infrastructure. According to Russian sources, drone attacks were recorded in the area of Sevastopol, Taganrog, and in the Kursk region during the week. It is also reported about a fire at a powder factory in Tambov on the night of November 11, which could have been caused by an UAV attack. In the Ryazan region a freight train derailed as a result of sabotage.

On the morning of November 9, a group of high-ranking Russian officers was eliminated in the temporarily occupied Skadovsk as a result of a missile strike. On the night of November 10, two Russian landing boats were hit by naval drones in Crimea. On November 11, the headquarters of Russian troops in Melitopol was blown up.

Attacks against representatives of the occupation administration in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine have intensified. On November 8, a high-ranking representative of the so-called law enforcement agencies of the occupation administration was eliminated in the Luhansk region. On November 10, a representative of the local so-called pseudo-law enforcement agencies was killed in Mariupol as a result of a car explosion. In addition, on November 9 fighters of the “Russian Volunteer Corps”, who are fighting on the side of Ukraine, eliminated a lieutenant colonel of the FSB on the territory of the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation.

The Russian military continues to attack the territory of Ukraine, using missiles, drones and artillery. On November 7, Russian troops struck an infrastructure facility near Kryvyi Rih in the Dnipropetrovsk region. On the same day, the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region was shelled. A large-scale drones attack was recorded on the night of November 11. The Ukrainian military reported the destruction of 19 out of 31 UAVs used. On the night of November 12, a missile attack was launched on the territory of the Mykolaiv region. Shelling of the border areas of Chernihiv and Sumy regions also continues.

On the morning of November 11, after a long break, Russian troops launched an attack against Kyiv using ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defense intercepted both targets, but 18 residential buildings and a private enterprise were damaged as a result of falling fragments of downed missiles,

On November 8, the Russian military hit with a missile a Liberian-flagged ship heading to a port in the Odesa region. As a result of the attack on the ship, a maritime pilot was killed.

The losses of the civilian population in the frontline regions of Ukraine as a result of the actions of the Russian military during the week were: in the Donetsk region – 9 people killed and 4 people wounded; in the Kherson region – 6 people killed and 27 people wounded. In the Kharkiv region, at least 2 people were killed and 2 people were injured. At least 1 person was injured in Dnipropetrovsk region, 3 people were injured in Odesa region.

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

On November 6, in the village of Chaiki in the Kyiv region, an assistant to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Hennadii Chastiakov, died as a result of careless handling of a grenade. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, the cause of death was a gift (grenades of a new model) from one of Chastiakov’s colleagues for his birthday. On November 10, the State Bureau of Investigation announced suspicion to an officer from the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who had handed over the grenades to Chastiakov.

Despite the strike on November 8 by a Russian anti-radiation missile Kh-31P against a civilian ship in one of the ports of Odesa, the movement of vessels to Ukrainian ports continued through an organized temporary corridor in the Black Sea. As of November 9, 6 vessels carrying 231,000 tons of agricultural products had departed from the ports of Odesa towards the Bosporus, while another 5 vessels were waiting to proceed westward to the ports for loading. In total, since August 8, 2023, 91 ships have exported 3.3 million tons of products, and 116 vessels have entered Ukrainian ports for loading.

From January to October 2023, Ukraine imported goods totaling $52.2 billion and exported goods worth $29.8 billion. Ukraine’s highest imports came from China ($8.4 billion), Poland ($5.5 billion), and Germany ($4.1 billion). Among the top importers of Ukrainian products during this period were Poland ($4.1 billion), Romania ($3.3 billion), and Turkey ($2 billion). Ukraine primarily imported machinery, equipment, and transportation; products from the chemical industry; and fuel and energy goods. The top export goods included food, metals, as well as machinery, equipment, and transportation.

On November 9, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the draft state budget for the year 2024. The revenues of the state budget are set at UAH 1.768 trillion, while expenditures are set at UAH 3.35 trillion. The primary expenditure category is security and defense; 22.1% of GDP or UAH 1.69 trillion will be allocated to this sector.

FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

On November 8, 2023, the European Commission published the official report of the 2023 Enlargement Package, reflecting for the first time the progress made on the path to EU membership by Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. According to the report, Ukraine has implemented 90% of the reforms outlined in the candidate status. Consequently, the European Commission recommended initiating accession negotiations with Ukraine to the European Union. The decision is expected to be adopted at the Council of Europe meeting in December. Meanwhile, Hungary expresses readiness to block such a decision.

Partners continue to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities. France announced the allocation of an additional 200 million euros to the fund supporting the Ukrainian army, funding arms purchases. Lithuania delivered a new batch of military aid to Ukraine, including two launcher units for the NАSAMS anti-aircraft missile systems, anti-drones, generators, and other modern equipment.

On November 7-8, during a two-day meeting in Tokyo, foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) countries confirmed their determination to increase sanctions pressure on Russia, advance the Ukrainian Formula for Peace, and increase assistance to Ukraine in reconstruction and recovery, fostering cooperation between the public and private sectors. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, also participated in the meeting.

The European Parliament adopted a resolution urging the EU and member states to strengthen and centralize supervision of sanctions at the EU level, develop a mechanism to prevent sanctions evasion, expand export controls, and close the EU market to Russian-origin fossil fuels, among other measures. Canada imposed sanctions on individuals and companies responsible for spreading Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine, targeting 9 individuals and 6 companies. In turn, the United Kingdom imposed new sanctions on 29 individuals and organizations operating in Russian gold mining, oil, and strategic sectors. Additionally, the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a bipartisan bill to use confiscated Russian assets to aid Ukraine.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Defense Minister of Lithuania, Arvydas Anušauskas, and the U.S. Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, who were visiting Kyiv this week. Volodymyr Zelenskyy also held video conference talks with the Presidents of Poland, Andrzej Duda, Paraguay, Santiago Peña Palacios, and had telephone conversations with the President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, and President of Sierra Leone, Julius Maada Bio. The main topics of the negotiations were the development of cooperation in collective and bilateral formats, support for humanitarian initiatives, strengthening further macro-financial support for Ukraine, and the implementation of the Ukrainian Formula for Peace, among other issues.

The information in the newsletter is collected from official sources—reports of state authorities of Ukraine, Ukrainian and international news agencies. The accuracy of the data is carefully checked by the project team and corrected in case of fake news.