Russia-Ukraine War Newsletter – JUNE 19-25, 2023

Situation as of 8:00 a.m. on June 6, 2023

● The Ukrainian Armed Forces are engaging in attacks on multiple fronts, achieving tactical successes; however, they have not breached the Russian front yet. Even with unforeseen events occurring in the Russian Federation, such as the mutiny led by Prigozhin on June 23-24, the defense of the Russian troops remains stable.

● Ukrainian forces are targeting the enemy’s logistical routes, which connect Crimea to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian troops are attempting to hinder these efforts by launching attacks on Ukrainian military airfields, focusing on neutralizing the Ukrainian Air Force’s capabilities.

● Volodymyr Zelenskyi has made statements regarding Russia’s alleged preparations for a terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a means to halt the Ukrainian troops’ offensive operation. On June 25, he discussed threats to the ZNPP with US President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Polish President Andrzej Duda.

● A conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine took place in London on June 21-22. The European Union has pledged to cover 45% of Ukraine’s financing needs by 2027, amounting to approximately 50 billion euros.

OPERATIONAL SITUATION

Ukrainian troops continue attacks in several directions in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. They were able to advance in the area of Bakhmut. Near Donetsk, they managed to improve their tactical positions, liberating the territories that had been under occupation since 2014. At the same time, the Armed Forces repelled Russian counterattacks on the territory of the Luhansk region – in the Kreminna region.

The Armed Forces strike the enemy’s key logistics routes in the southern direction, as well as warehouses with weapons. In particular, the Chonhar bridge and the old bridge across the Syvash were hit, which made it difficult to provide Russian troops in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. In addition, attacks on Russian military bases in the temporarily occupied territories continue.

Because of the mutiny carried out on the territory of Russia by the militants of the so-called PVC Wagner under the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin, there is a rebasing of some Russian units from the territory of Ukraine (“Wagners” and ” Kadyrovites“). At the same time, the events in the Russian Federation on June 23-24 did not affect the overall stability of the Russian defense.

The Russian command is trying to disrupt the offensive of the Armed Forces by striking the rear areas of Ukraine. On the night of June 20, a massive strike was carried out on the territory of Ukraine using kamikaze drones, which were aimed at Kyiv and Lviv, where critical infrastructure was damaged. In addition, a missile attack was carried out on Zaporizhzhia and its suburbs. The next night, Khmelnytskyi was attacked by drones. On the night of June 22, a missile attack was carried out on the Dnipropetrovsk region. On the night of June 23, Russian troops launched a missile attack on a military airfield in the Khmelnytskyi region, but the Ukrainian military reported the destruction of all 13 missiles.

On the night of June 24, the largest recent missile attack was carried out on the territory of Ukraine, in which more than 50 missiles were used. Most of them were destroyed by Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, falling fragments of a rocket in Kyiv resulted in the death of 3 civilians, and 11 people were injured. In Dnipro, as a result of the attack, private residential buildings were damaged, 11 people were injured.

During the week, the loss of civilians in the front-line and border regions of Ukraine amounted to at least: in the Donetsk region – 6 people died and 20 people were wounded; in the Kherson region – 6 people died and 31 people were injured. In the Kharkiv region, 7 people were injured as a result of shelling and mine detonation. At least 1 person died in the Sumy region, 3 people were injured.

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

During a video address on June 22, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, reported on Russia’s alleged preparation of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which could lead to the release of radiation. Prior to this, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, announced such a threat, informing about the mining of a cooler at the ZNPP by the Russian occupying forces.

The process of returning Ukrainian prisoners of war, who were taken from the Russian Federation to Hungary at the beginning of June without informing the Ukrainian side about this, is ongoing. As of June 23, Ukraine returned 5 out of 11 Ukrainian servicemen. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the conditions of stay of Ukrainian prisoners in Hungary do not allow us to talk about their free status, and it is not possible to establish direct contact with them, despite repeated demands to allow the Ukrainian consul to join the military. The relevant actions of Hungary are regarded by the Ukrainian side as questioning the provisions of international humanitarian law and the European Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.

According to preliminary estimates, more than 500 residents of the temporarily occupied Oleshky on the left bank of the Kherson region died as a result of the Russian troops blowing up the Kakhovka Dam. The Russian armed forces refused to evacuate local residents because they did not have Russian passports.

According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, due to the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine lost about 3.5 million jobs; more than 4.5 million residents left abroad.

OJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine and five companies of the group filed a lawsuit with the US District Court to confirm the decision of the Arbitration Tribunal at the Permanent Chamber of the Arbitration Court in the Hague regarding the recovery of $5 billion in compensation from the Russian Federation for damages and lost property in Crimea.

According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) of the World Bank Group has started providing war risk insurance guarantees in Ukraine. The first such project was the agreement between MIGA and the German bank holding ProCredit to increase the guarantee from 17.1 to 40.85 million euros. The project will be implemented with the involvement of the Ukraine Relief, Recovery, Reconstruction and Reform Trust Fund.

FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

On June 21-22, an international Conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine (Ukraine Recovery Conference) was held in London, as well as a meeting of the Interagency Coordination Platform of donors of Ukraine. The event was attended by a Ukrainian delegation led by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. According to the results of the conference, it was possible to attract additional financial resources for the reconstruction of Ukraine, to form a business coalition for investments, to strengthen coordination with international partners. In addition, on the sidelines of the event, the Prime Minister of Ukraine held talks with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Also, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the European Union will cover 45% of all Ukraine’s financing needs until 2027, which amounts to approximately 50 billion euros. Financing will be provided in the form of European grants, loans, as well as at the expense of previously frozen Russian assets.

As part of the conference, international partners and organizations announced the allocation of new financial aid for the recovery of Ukraine. In particular, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a new support program in the amount of 3 billion pounds for the next three years, and also announced a new military risk insurance program to help rebuild Ukraine. The European Investment Bank will start a new portfolio of projects for the reconstruction of Ukraine worth 840 million euros. The World Bank and donors allocated an additional 1.76 billion dollars to Ukraine for recovery. Germany will allocate an additional 381 million euros for humanitarian aid in 2023. The United States will provide Ukraine with $1.3 billion in financial aid, which will be directed to energy and infrastructure needs. In addition, the Danish Parliament approved a plan for military aid to Ukraine for 2.95 billion euros in the period 2023-2028. Australia will provide a new package of military aid to Ukraine worth $110 million.

The Council of the European Union adopted the 11th package of economic and individual sanctions against Russia aimed at strengthening existing EU restrictions and ending their circumvention. The Council of the EU added another 87 companies to the list of entities that directly support the Russian military industry in the war against Ukraine. The list of prohibited goods has also been expanded, the transit of a greater number of goods and technologies through the territory of Russia is prohibited.

In turn, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted the resolution “Political Consequences of Russian Aggression Against Ukraine”, in which it supported Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the Ukrainian Peace Formula.

This week, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, held telephone conversations with the President of the United States, Joseph Biden, with the Prime Ministers of the Netherlands and Denmark, Mark Rutte and Mette Frederiksen, as well as with the President of the World Bank, Ajaypal Banga, and with the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Rishi Sunak. The leaders discussed Ukraine’s defense needs, further cooperation on expanding Ukraine’s capabilities, and the implementation of the Peace Formula.

The information in the newsletter is collected from official sources—reports of state authorities of Ukraine, Ukrainian and international news agencies. The accuracy of the data is carefully checked by the project team and corrected in case of fake news.