Russia-Ukraine War Newsletter – JULY 31 – AUGUST 6, 2023

Situation as of 8:00 a.m. on August 7, 2023  

  • The Security Service of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Navy carried out several successful special operations using unmanned surface vehicles. As a result of the attacks, the Russian large landing ship “Olenegorsky Gornyak” in the bay of Novorossiysk and the oil/chemical tanker in the Kerch Strait were damaged. Ukraine has declared the waters of the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation a zone of military threat.
  • Russian troops continue to strike civilian targets in Ukraine. On July 31, a missile hit a residential building in Kryvyi Rih, killing 6 people and wounding more than 80 people. On August 2, Russian drones destroyed buildings and cargo of grain in the Danube port of Izmail.
  • On August 5-6 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the second round of consultations at the level of national security advisors and political directors took place regarding the implementation of the Peace Formula of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Over 40 countries participated in the meeting, unanimously supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The establishment of separate working groups for each of the points of the Formula was agreed upon.
  • Russia prohibits residents of the occupied territories without Russian citizenship from accessing humanitarian and medical assistance; deprives them of the right to work, municipal, and social services; forces them to recognize the “authority” of the occupying administration and obtain Russian passports through “filtration” measures, detentions, interrogations, and deportation threats. Additionally, all children born in the occupied territories of Ukraine automatically receive Russian citizenship, regardless of their parents’ citizenship status in Russia (the same situation applies to orphaned children).

OPERATIONAL SITUATION

Positional battles continue on the front line. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue offensive operations in the southern direction and near Bakhmut; Russian troops are trying to hold the defense and at the same time are trying to attack near the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.

In response to Russian actions aimed at blocking Ukrainian grain exports, Ukraine has intensified attacks against ships of the Russian fleet and port infrastructure using naval kamikaze drones. Russian sources reported unsuccessful attempts of such attacks on August 1 and 2. On the night of August 4, the port of Novorossiysk was attacked. As a result, the large landing ship “Olenegorsky Gornyak” was damaged. The next night, an attack near the Krech bridge struck the Russian oil/chemical tanker “SIG”, which was used to transport fuel for the Russian army in Crimea. The vessel remained afloat, but suffered serious damage. On August 5, Ukraine declared the waters of the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation (Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman) a zone of military threat.

In addition, during the week, explosions were recorded on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea near Russian military facilities. On August 6, a bridge near Henichesk in the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region was damaged. On the night of August 1, kamikaze drones one more time hit an office building in the Moscow International Business Center (Moscow-City complex). Reports were made about the work of air defense on the outskirts of the Russian capital.

Russian troops continue to implement missile strikes against the territory of Ukraine. On July 31, a Russian missile hit a multi-storey apartment building in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk region). As a result, 6 people were killed, more than 80 people were wounded. On the evening of August 5, a large-scale missile strike was carried out against the airfields on the territory of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions. Also, ballistic missiles were used to strike the Motor-Sich enterprise in Zaporizhzhia. A guided aerial bomb hit a blood transfusion center in Kharkiv.  

Attacks against the territory of Ukraine continue with the use of kamikaze drones. On the night of 1 August, a UAV damaged a dormitory building in Kharkiv. On the night of August 2, drones attacked Kyiv, damaging non-residential buildings in several areas of the city. In addition, port and industrial infrastructure in the city of Izmail in the south of Odesa region was hit. A cargo of about 40 thousand tons of grain that was to be exported to Africa, China and Israel was destroy in this attack. Another large-scale drone attack against Ukrainian cities was carried out on the night of August 6.

As a result of Russian attacks, civilian losses in the frontline regions of Ukraine during the week amounted to at least: in Donetsk region – 7 people killed and 16 people wounded; in Kherson region – 5 people killed and 45 people wounded. In Kharkiv region, 3 people were killed, 7 people were injured. At least 1 person died in Sumy region.

On August 1, Belarusian military helicopters carried out a provocation, violating the state border with Poland and flying into Polish airspace. In response, the Polish military deployed additional forces (including attack helicopters) near the border. NATO is also closely monitoring the situation and is in contact with Warsaw.

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

In the report of the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab, published as part of the Conflict Observatory program with the support of the US State Department, the situation of forced passportization of Ukrainian citizens in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine by Russia is described. The main research findings indicate that Russia prohibits residents of the occupied territories without Russian citizenship from accessing humanitarian and medical assistance; deprives them of the right to work, municipal, and social services; forces them to recognize the “authority” of the occupying administration and obtain Russian passports through “filtration” measures, detentions, interrogations, and deportation threats. Additionally, all children born in the occupied territories of Ukraine automatically receive Russian citizenship, regardless of their parents’ citizenship status in Russia (the same situation applies to orphaned children). Parents and medical workers face pressure to register newborns as Russian citizens; otherwise, they are threatened with the loss of parental rights, dismissal from their jobs, and restricted access to free diapers and baby food, among other things.

According to the statement from the Russian Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, who has been declared wanted by the International Criminal Court, since February 24, 2022, Russia has “accepted” approximately 4.8 million Ukrainian residents, including over 700,000 Ukrainian children. Additionally, around 1,500 residents of orphanages have been transported to Russian territory. According to official Ukrainian data, as of the end of July 2023, the deportation of 19,546 Ukrainian children to Russia has been recorded. However, according to human rights activists, the actual numbers could reach hundreds of thousands of such cases.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, since the beginning of 2022, Russia has forcibly mobilized between 55,000 to 60,000 individuals (including students) from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine into its armed forces, sending them to the frontline without any preparation.

After Russia’s blockade of the “grain corridor,” world prices for food products started to rise, particularly due to the increase in vegetable oil and wheat prices. As of July 2023, the food price index reached 123.9 points (1.3% higher than in June). For the first time in the last 9 months, global wheat prices increased by 1.6%. Additionally, in July, rice prices rose by 2.8% due to the price surge in the Indian market segment.

The Ukrainian Grain Association has estimated the potential harvest in Ukraine to be 76.8 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is 3 million tons more than last year, despite having 2.2 million hectares less cultivated land. This increase in the harvest forecast is attributed to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields. In the new season of 2023-2024, Ukraine’s export may reach up to 48 million tons of produce.

FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

On August 5-6 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the second meeting at the level of national security advisors and political directors took place regarding the key principles of peace based on the Peace Formula of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Participants of the meeting from around 40 countries (including China, which participated for the first time) affirmed their support for the principles of the UN Charter and agreed that respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine should be the foundation of any peaceful settlement. The parties also agreed to continue working on the implementation of the Peace Formula at various representative levels. The Jeddah meeting was a step towards the practical realization of the peaceful initiatives proposed by Ukraine. Additionally, working groups on 10 points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula were formed as a result of the meeting.

This week, Ukraine began negotiations with the United States on a bilateral agreement for providing “security guarantees” within the framework of the Joint Declaration to support our state. This cooperation aims to strengthen Ukraine’s progress on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration. In turn, 12 countries have already joined the G7 Joint Declaration on security assurances for Ukraine, and work on bilateral security agreements with other partner states will begin soon.

Slovakia provided Ukraine with two self-propelled howitzers Zuzana 2 as part of an aid package funded by Denmark, Germany, and Norway. Lithuania allocated another package of military assistance to Ukraine, including launching units for anti-aircraft missile systems NASAMS, anti-drone systems, and other equipment. The government of Bulgaria approved a project for the free provision of armored transport vehicles to Ukraine. Germany also delivered a new package of military assistance to Ukraine, including BMP Marder, demining equipment, and reconnaissance systems.

The Council of the European Union imposed new sanctions against Belarus due to its involvement in Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine. These sanctions will primarily help prevent circumvention of sanctions against Russia through Minsk and expand the ban on exporting goods and technologies that contribute to Belarus’s military and technological development. Restrictive measures against Russia’s banking system are also being strengthened, including this week’s decision by the American bank JPMorgan to halt processing export payments for “Rosselkhozbank,” which is under US and EU sanctions.

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting with Christopher Christie, a member of the US Republican Party, who visited Ukraine on a visit. The leaders discussed the importance of further strengthening international assistance from partners and the conditions necessary for the successful liberation of temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories.

The information in the newsletter is collected from official sources—reports of state authorities of Ukraine, Ukrainian and international news agencies. The accuracy of the data is carefully checked by the project team and corrected in case of fake news.