Russia-Ukraine War Newsletter – FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 5, 2023

The situation as of 8:00 a.m. on March 06, 2023

  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to hold back attacks by Russian troops attempting to encircle Bakhmut, a devastated town in eastern Ukraine. The battle for Bakhmut has been going on since August 2022.
  • Attacks against Russia’s military infrastructure and increased flights of unidentified UAVs have been recorded on the territory of the Russian Federation. However, these incidents may be a provocation aimed at the mobilization of Russian society.
  • On March 3–5, Lviv hosted the United for Justice international conference (the so-called “Legal Ramstein”). The purpose of the event was to provide international support for the establishment of a special tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

OPERATIONAL SITUATION

The fiercest fighting on the front line is taking place around Bakhmut in Donetsk region. Russian troops have improved their positions in the area and continue to storm the city from the eastern and northern directions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces command has sent reinforcements to this section of the front and is regrouping its forces.

In other areas of the front (Svatove-Kreminna, Avdiivka, Marinka, Vuhledar), Russian troops are unable to advance despite constant attacks.

The Russian military strikes at the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. As a result, the number of civilian casualties over the past week was at least as follows: in Donetsk region12 people killed and 35 people wounded; in Kherson region – 8 people killed and 51 people wounded. In the Kharkiv region, as a result of shelling, 2 civilians were killed and 1 person was injured; 1 person was killed and 1 person was injured as a result of a mine explosion.

In addition, a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia on the night of March 2 killed 13 people (including a child) and injured 8. The shelling of the territories of Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk (where 2 people were killed near Nikopol on March 4) and Sumy regions also continues.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine strike at the military infrastructure of the Russian troops in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Also during the week, several explosions were recorded on the territory of the Russian Federation (in particular, at the Tuapse oil depot and the military airfield in Yeysk) and the appearance of unknown UAVs in its airspace (including in the areas of Moscow and St. Petersburg). 

On March 2, members of the Russian Volunteer Corps (a unit of Russian emigrants within the Foreign Legion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) raided the territory of the border areas of the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation. The operation had a propaganda character and was intended to draw attention to the Russians’ struggle against the Putin regime.

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Christopher Cavoli, believes that Russian troops in Ukraine have lost more than 200,000 soldiers killed and wounded, including more than 1,800 officers.

HUMANITARIAN SITUATION, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

On March 4, prosecutors from the member states of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) signed an agreement to establish an International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Russia’s Aggression in The Hague. It is expected that the center, which will start operating this summer, will be the first step towards the establishment of a Special Tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The European Commission, together with Poland and with the support of UN agencies, is launching an initiative to search for Ukrainian children illegally taken to Russia and to bring those responsible for the crime to justice.

Despite the rotation of IAEA experts at ZNPP, which was blocked by the Russian side for a long time, the situation around the plant, which has been occupied since March 4, 2022, remains highly complicated. First of all, there has been no success in attempts to return Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukrainian control through diplomatic means due to Russia’s refusal to demilitarize and withdraw its troops and personnel from the occupied plant. During the year of Russian occupation, the condition of the equipment at ZNPP has significantly deteriorated, and the plant itself has experienced five complete blackouts with a risk to the operation of the reactor zones. In response to this situation, the President of Ukraine once again called on the world for a “strong reaction” including sanctions against the Russian nuclear industry.

According to the Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine, Ruslan Strilets, during the full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian environment suffered damage worth UAH 2 trillion ($81 billion).

The Appeals Chamber of the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) imposed a preventive measure of UAH 229 million bail on former Naftogaz CEO Andrii Koboliev. Koboliev is suspected of abuse of office as he initiated a UAH 266 million bonus payment to himself in 2018 in connection with the final decision of the Stockholm arbitration. In another high-profile case, the HACC decided to imprison the former head of Boryspil International Airport, Yevhen Dykhne, for 5 years, allegedly for illegally leasing airport facilities to entrepreneurs.

FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT

Last week, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi paid a two-day working visit to Lviv, where he held a series of international meetings. The Head of State held talks with President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola, President of the Republic of Latvia Egils Levits, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands Wopke Hoekstra, and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia Urmas Reinsalu.  In Lviv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi also met with the attorneys general of Ukraine’s partner countries and representatives of international institutions.

International partners continue to provide defense support to Ukraine. The United States announced a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine, which will include ammunition for HIMARS, howitzers, Bradleys, and other equipment.

Sanctions pressure for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is increasing. In particular, the Japanese government expanded sanctions against 73 legal entities and 39 individuals from Russia. The European Union expanded the list of individuals and institutions from Belarus (21 individuals and two institutions were added) subject to EU restrictive measures in connection with their involvement in Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia sent three planes with humanitarian aid to Ukraine, including generators, worth about $100 million.

In addition, during the week, the President of Ukraine discussed the prospects of Ukraine’s accession to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development with Secretary General of the organization Mathias Cormann. Volodymyr Zelenskyi also met with International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who were on a visit to Kyiv.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyi had his first phone conversation with the newly elected President of Switzerland, Alain Berset.

On March 1-2, a meeting of G20 foreign ministers was held in India. However, ministers failed to agree on a joint final declaration due to disagreements over the war in Ukraine. Most states again condemned Russia’s aggressive war in the strongest terms and demanded an unconditional withdrawal of troops from Ukraine, while the foreign ministers of Russia and China disagreed on the two respective points.

The information in the newsletter is collected from official sources—reports of state authorities of Ukraine, Ukrainian and international news agencies. The accuracy of the data is carefully checked by the project team and corrected in case of fake news.